My friend Ryan Merket put together a terrific set of tech predictions for 2011. Below is my favorite. I don't think people realize what a big change a competitor to AdSense would have on Google and the Internet ecosystem. Currently, Google doesn't really tell the Publisher what % of the revenue split you get on AdSense. That means Facebook can use transparency and a much lower rev share to get a foothold, or at least to damage Google. Currently, Google is trying this on Apple in the Mobile App developer market and it's at least helping Android App Development activity. Stay tuned because I think this will be a bigger story.
Facebook Will Release a “Social Adsense” Product to Compete with Google Adsense
Running ads on your own domain is cool. But you know what’s cooler? Running ads on other people’s domains. It actually surprises me that more people don’t see this coming. How was Google able to make the revenues it did before it went public? How does Google continue to make their astronomical revenue numbers? Adsense. Go ahead and keep putting that “Like” button on your site, along with the FaceMash plugin – you’re slowly helping Facebook open the door for “Social Adsense”. Facebook could build this today; heck, they’ve already hired the Google engineers who are credited for Google Adsense. As end users become more comfortable with seeing their faces and friends’ faces show up on third party sites, Faceook is minimizing the privacy backlash that is inevitable when they roll this product out.
